After the epidemic passed, where is our future?

If you can’t do some 取 舍 and cutting, I am worried, soon, in the future, we will lose their rights.


First, want GDP, still pay

Today, many people are still talking about GDP, talking about two doubles.

The heart is big.

Worried about employment. Especially the employment of college students.

We have no unemployment rate indicators in strict economics, and only the reference value is very weak, and the unemployment rate is unemployed. This is the case, and the urban registration rate at the end of 2019 is 3.62%, and the investigation is 5.2%.

The latest February investigation unemployment rate is 6.2%, soared to a new high since statistics. This is just in February. March is no doubtful

SMEs solve more than 80% of employment in China, and companies above the scale are never employment force. This is true, and the employment of industrial enterprises above China has declined in four consecutive years. From January to February this year,

The number of employment of industrial enterprises above is reduced to 11.39 million, the net reduction of 2.29 million in the past three years, the decline is 16.7%:

According to the past experience, China GDP has increased by one point, and the eleventh fifteenth period can drive 100–13 million, and the data is raised to 1.7 million.

But we have no GDP deceleration or even negative growth of how much employment. For so many years, we are used to economic growth.

. According to the Austrian law, GDP will pull down the employment rate of one percentage point. Oken is an empirical data for US measurement. Considering that our industrial structure is still not high, GDP will definitely be more than the US.

Even according to US data, our GDP is 2 points, at least no less than 3 million unemployment will be added.

So, where will our GDP will get this year?


Composition in accordance with my macro model,

The annual GDP growth will barely maintain 0.9% – 1% of the growth, and it does not eliminate the percentage of negative growth.

this means,

Even according to the American experience of Ak, we will add 10 million unemployment.

(In fact, in accordance with our industrial structure, this data is undoubtedly underestimated).

This also did not consider the employment needs of more than 8 million (8.34 million last year).

Data is cold, but the data is quite true.

If you graduate, you will be unemployed. If this sentence is drama, in many of the graduates, the big probability will become a word.

I am very worried that college students just crossing the ivory tower don’t know what happened outside, and even high expectations, and finally because of excessive expectations, they are indispensable.


. For example, the data we have got is that this master’s degree pay is expected to be 29.2% higher than the level of the market. In the financial model, this figure is a talent. In fact, the economic duration, the employer takes into account the cost performance, priority, is a master’s degree:

If more than half of the previous students can’t find a job, this is a neutral hypothesis or pessimistic hypothesis?

Da Water scilled, on the establishment, rescued GDP and saved the economy. GDP is a traffic concept, is a face project, which is the glory of the emperor. The economy is employment, income, is the balance sheet of SMEs and the eating and drinking of ordinary people.

As long as you print the money, GDP can definitely go up, and you can achieve smoothness.

However, more surface is bustling, and finally can’t reach the SMEs and the resident balance sheet. According to this situation this year, from the central, to the place, you should have given up GDP, abandon this year, and Figure next year. The only task from the top this year is to keep the bore. Or say that residents and SME balance sheets. Or, re-talking about it, Baoshong small business (basically all people enterprises) do not die

For the official, the benefit party.

Today, the only indicator of any local government should be the small and medium-sized enterprises in its jurisdiction.

. If the collapse ratio is over 25% (the proportion of human blood loss, the resignation, or the people, the most strange confession.

However, in this way, we have next year before they have future. This year, we can’t take it in and put it in the future.

If you continue to press the GDP indicator, the local government must go to the foundation. If you don’t say it, you will also squeeze the SMEs who breathe difficulties, Davis double kill.

As for the central government to do something for SMEs, I will see you with my roughness.

– This cake, the local government can’t move. China’s banking loan benchmark interest rate is 4.75%, and the deposit benchmark interest rate is 1.5%,

The spread is as high as 325 BP.

If you guess you, who is the most profitable company in China, you may not guess.

But the second make money? Third? Fourth? Fifth? The general turn to Ali, Tencent, Huawei?

Sorry, the top five, these companies that you think that the burdock, will not appear. Huawei by our tree as a national science and technology benchmark, a year earned money, less than 100 million US dollars.

Wealth Magazine unveiled 20 of the world’s most profitable 20 companies. The good news is that China has five listings. The bad news is that all of the list is state-owned banks:

The 2019 report has not finished, and the data of Greorhui shares is displayed. As of the third quarter of 2019, the net profit of China has increased by 9.3% year-on-year, corresponding to 6% GDP growth, this data is called And amazing. but

After eliminating the financial industry, the rest of the company’s return is only 0.13%, and the negative growth is one step:

Bank of China + real estate (real estate essence is financial tentacle), take 51% of total profits in all industries. In the United States, this data is only 15%

, The industry that really earns big head is computer, internet, pharmaceutical, semiconductor:

This is a great verification, I read Bo Tunchet’s excitement to me:

Are you asking the best business model? very good. Either you go to the world and then pay taxes, or take a bank license.

If they take more, they will inevitably have less people.

With the bad debt rate of less than 2 points below our bank (if they publish the authenticity of the data), directly pressing the bank’s spread out of 200 BP, and we will not go to the extent to the financial crisis

At this moment, the bank does not come out and walk two steps. When you talk, wait for the company to disappear, the bank has changed the money with air?

Our generation, in fact, did not experience and met the real economic depression or crisis. I am worried, whether we will be big because of the heart, and the misunderstood is not rich.

Forget the GDP, Baolu.

Insurance is not dead, it is to protect our future.

Second, should we want to win?

Most people are not clear,

When you are a fast tongue, you will cause much damage to us? !

We are the largest pit, not an epidemic, but some of the global in the world.

The former is an incident, an impact, is a short period, is a privilege, which does not affect the valuation of “China”. The latter is a model, which is long-term, it is sustainable, will simply pull the valuation of “China” stock.

This epidemic, the largest secondary disaster

It is a large number of people who have a large number of people who are fascinating.

Now the world, except for the rare countries such as North Korea, Lesotho, there is no report infection, and all other falls.

The number of infected people outside China has exceeded 1.68 million, and the cumulative death has exceeded 100,000.

There are more than 10,000 countries in diagnosis of more than 10,000, and the number of people diagnosed more than 100,000, and the United States is up to 520,000. The number of deaths in the four countries, the meaning, the west, and the United States have been over 10,000.

The United States is the world’s first country that breaks through 20,000 countries.

. Inadvertently, the number of deaths in the UK will break all over this weekend.

The most sad Idal, the death of Europe, the number of deaths has reached 1.947 million, and the mortality has reached 12.78% of near terror.

. No accident, to this weekend, the number of deaths in Italy will easily break 20,000 – to know,

The entire World War II, as the core participating in the country, the number of all deaths in Italy, but only more than 200,000


This kind of plague infection sweeping all human beings have never had such a plague infection.

With the disaster two words, the plague on the huge impact of this plague on people’s physiology and psychology of the world:

This is not the most critical. The most critical is that many countries will think this is a disaster.


The mentality is changing.

Going back to see our own data, 83,400 diagnosis, 3,349 people die. Now I will catch a country, the number of casualties may be far from us.

This is of course not our fault.

But this will make things and mentality reversibility changes, from the initial epidemic, there is no sympathy to our complaints, quietly

. Those who praised more than 440,000 people in the news of the Prime Minister of the British Prime Minister, let this resentment, directly to the anger direction.

In fact, things are far from the world where the people in the people in China are not in the world, and all countries in the world have no complaints, but they are just on the matter, dealing with the epidemic.


From a considerable part of the foreign media and social platform,

Say overseas to our grievances, together with the epidemic curve, climb, or more close to the facts

. Many countries in Europe and America have different degrees of emotion, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations emphasizes the source of the epidemic,

Mei, Britain, Australia, Germany, India, etc., said that the epidemic is called the Chinese claim, and the Japanese government requires domestic states to evacuate China.

, Or not just talking.


During the entire epidemic, we indulged the ignorant and nothing of the shouting, and the people who were shouting and the people, the masses, committed too many mistakes and guidance, including the “Virus Origin American”, “World World I am”, ” “Collective immunization does not respect human rights theory”, “Western system is thick”, etc., let us advance and retreat, image and situation becoming more and more

I can’t wait for the days. The country is always doing business, and the company has got a wage.


. Or the sentence I have ever said earlier, if we returned, reform into a self-sufficient economy, we reappear, perhaps no need for 20 years. We must be very objectively judged and seriously treated the real situation and feelings of the current world. I am more worried, after the epidemic, “going to China” will really become a certain reality.

But whether it is “going to China”, but it does not depend on Europe and America, but depends on our own. Depends on what we think, how to say, how to do

There is no competition between big powers. But must admit that these years,

To some extent, we have a relationship with the United States, from the competitor (Competitor) to the opponent, or even the enemy (AdVersary)

Sentence is this:

You want to turn someone (country) as a friend, it is not so easy. But if you want to turn someone (country) into your enemy, then he will become your enemy. You will definitely pay the place

As for those who shouted and shout, no one in the world, no one is not afraid of the righteousness, I would like to remind, the new crown lethal rate is only 4%. No income, the dead rate is 100%.

The awake of pain, good care. Repelling and group citizens, not only creating wealth, but also can’t build a big country

. We can do anyone else. However, we can’t do anyone.

Cooperation may not be the best choice, but must be the least bad choice (Cooperation is the Worst Form of Relationship Except for all theogether.).

The world is still available. What we need to do, just learn from and refer to the great wisdom of the great man, use historical verification, we are good at playing, Make Money

This is the same as the investment. Most novices often regard the securities market as talents show the stage, all kinds of sputum, all kinds of juggling.

It is inevitable for leaving leggings.


According to Buffett’s survival experience: you need to do, just find a way to make money, even if it looks stupid. Then, do it repeatedly!

Three 丶 小 编 结语

On April 8th, Wuhan lifted the ban on the day, driving to work, passing by a few people, and there is no zebra crossing of the traffic light. A person behind the road is waiting for the road. I habitually decelerate. That person obviously, no need to pass, the feet stretched out and returned. Only one meter place in the zebra crossing, I stopped the car and saw it.

I want to cross the road is a beggar. Should not exceed 20 years old, unclear colors, leaking thin calves with slender arm, left hand with a plastic bag, right hand is very hard to take a snake skin bag on the shoulder.

The most fascinating, it is a dirty, I don’t know how long it took, it is clear that there is no protective disposable mask.

During the entire epidemic, I saw it, listened to so many deaths, I didn’t fall over, but

This dirty mask in the streets of China’s most modern city in Shenzhen, like a needle, let me laughed in a moment.

For the cruel bismuth of society and people, for life

He wears this dirty mask without any protective role, it is obviously not because of how high or cherish your life.


. The big probability is because if he doesn’t wear this mask, he will take it inch, even because it does not wear a mask, it is full of white eyes, expel, insults and beatings.

He wears a mask, just to fight for and retain the most humble rights, just for the most despicable place.

I waved him to cross the road. But he is still very embarrassed and hesitant. After I smiled and again, he told him to pass, and went back and looked at me, and his eyes took a humble and horrified.

On the day of Wuhan, hometown friends sent me two paragraphs reflected in Wuhan from different angles. A section is a curtain that is a messy flying in the wind. Friend said

From last year, until yesterday, I have been waiting for this owner to come back to the curtain. Tree green, Wuhan also decorates, still do not see the owner, the curtain is still in the air.


Another paragraph is the light show on both sides of the Yangtze River in Wuhan. I express my blessings, but I didn’t show too much excitement.


I have never really like the collective glory of this grand narrative.

I am worried that this bright light will cover a lot of humble to the dust, helplessness and sorrow.These things will make life lose dignity.


If every life can be alive, you can’t have dignity, we can’t die, all our efforts and struggles, why?

Life is never easy

Bless this land, bless every company, bless every individual, can ferment.

May God give us strength, I hope we will help each other, and live together to dignify!


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